/weekend need to know
Negotiations About Negotiations
Hormuz Action and Sanctions
Lebanon “Ceasefire” in Disarray
See quick overview of other notable oil market info this weekend
/summary
NEGOTIATIONS ABOUT NEGOTIATIONS:
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi spent the weekend on a regional diplomatic tour - visiting Pakistan twice, then Oman and now set for Moscow, while also speaking by phone with Turkish, Qatari, Saudi and French officials - but no meeting with the US materialised. Friday's optimism that Kushner and Witkoff were Pakistan-bound evaporated Saturday when Trump abruptly cancelled via Truth Social, claiming Iran's offer "should've been better" while insisting the US has "all the cards."
Tehran's position remains firm: Iranian President Pezeshkian told Pakistan's PM that Iran will not enter negotiations under threats or while the US blockade remains in place. Trump's choices are narrowing - escalate, cut a deal he doesn't like, or wait for the blockade to break Iran's red lines on nukes. None look clean, and as proceedings drag on, energy faces further upward pressure.
HORMUZ ACTION AND SANCTIONS:
Washington tightened its grip on Iranian oil revenues this weekend, with the US Treasury sanctioning roughly 40 shipping firms and vessels linked to Iran's shadow fleet, alongside Hengli Petrochemical - China's second-largest teapot refinery - for its Iranian crude purchases.
One of the newly sanctioned vessels, the M/V Sevan, was swiftly intercepted by US naval forces in the Arabian Sea. Turning around tankers is an inconvenience for Iran, not a breaking point and as long as the blockade stands, it remains the single biggest barrier to getting Iran to the negotiating table.
LEBANON "CEASEFIRE" IN DISARRAY:
Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered his military to "vigorously attack" Hezbollah targets in Lebanon just two days after the ceasefire was extended by three weeks underscoring how little the agreement actually holds.
Both sides have recorded attacks in recent days, and Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad dismissed the extended truce as meaningless given Israel's continued strikes, assassinations and demolition of southern villages.
Halting Israeli operations in Lebanon had previously been a key Iranian red line, and with the ceasefire visibly fraying, it is likely to resurface as a sticking point in any broader diplomatic process.
OTHER NOTABLE DEVELOPMENTS:
Ukrainian drones struck the Yaroslavl oil refinery in Russia overnight on April 26, Ukraine's General Staff confirmed - the latest in a series of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Separately, new EU sanctions set to take effect from January 1, 2027 will ban condensate imports from Russia's Yamal LNG and other Russian projects that produce the light fuel as a byproduct of LNG production, according to the EU's official journal.
Meanwhile, Kharg Island loadings continue, though this is increasingly a storage play as the US blockade bears down on vessels attempting to clear the strait.
/top headlines
1) Negotiations About Negotiations
(Apr 26) - Iranian Foreign Minister Abba Araghchi has been on a diplomatic tour of some of his regional neighbour’s this weekend, though much to the disappointment of oil market optimism on Friday, no meeting with the US in any form was undertaken.
It’s not clear that the US had any opening to meet with Iran this weekend when headlines emerged on Friday that Kushner and Witkoff were set for a last-minute Islamabad, Pakistan trip. Abruptly on Saturday, Trump cancelled their trip claiming via Truth Social: “Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work! Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their ‘leadership.’ Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!”
While speaking to reporters Saturday afternoon before boarding Air Force One in Florida, Trump said that Iran presented him with “a paper that should’ve been better,” adding that within 10 minutes of him cancelling the trip, Tehran sent “a new paper that was much better.” When pressed by CNN’s Kit Maher for more details on what was offered, Trump said “they offered a lot but not enough.”
What has Araghchi been up to?
This weekend, Iran’s FM Araghchi has been to Pakistan, followed by a trip to Oman - back to Pakistan – and then followed by a trip to Moscow. He has also spoken on the phone with Turkish, Qatari and Saudi officials during this time.
The discussion have really centred around building a framework to ultimately end the war Al Jazeera reports. The purpose of the return to Pakistan was to have further discussions with the Pakistani prime minister and the army chief. Reporting on the content of the discussions has been very limited.
It’s not clear if the discussions have involved the apparent revised offer Trump claims he has received but at the very least, signals the diplomacy channel remains open despite clear Iranian reluctance and its apparent upper hand in current proceedings.
As well as conversations with regional actors, Araghchi also spoke to Jean-Noel Barrot, the foreign minister of France, about “developments related to the ceasefire”, emphasising “the importance” of European countries’ “constructive role” in the process, according to the Telegram account of the Foreign Ministry
Araghchi said via X after the first Pakistan visit: “Very fruitful visit to Pakistan, whose good offices and brotherly efforts to bring back peace to our region we very much value,” Araghchi wrote on X. “Shared Iran’s position concerning workable framework to permanently end the war on Iran. Have yet to see if the U.S. is truly serious about diplomacy.”
Trump Sunday talking points:
Trump says Iran can reach out to the US if it wants to negotiate an end to the war between the two countries. “If they want to talk, they can come to us or they can call us. You know there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines,” he said in an interview on Fox News’ The Sunday Briefing.
Similar talking points of expectations that the war will come to an end “soon” were repeated. He also claimed the US will take Iran’s “nuclear dust” as part of the talks.
Trump has also repeated prior claims suggesting uncertainty about Iran’s leadership which he argued was complicating talks.
Iran has about 3 days before their oil infrastructure explodes according to Trump.
Iranian President remains defiant:
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif by phone that Tehran will not enter “imposed negotiations” under threats or blockade, according to a statement from the Iranian government.
Pezeshkian says the United States should first remove “operational obstacles,” including its blockade of Iranian ports, before negotiators can lay any groundwork to resolve the conflict.
Context: The goal of the blockade imposed by the U.S. administration is to subjugate the Iranians and push them to a point of weakness – a move which does not appear to be working and if it were to work, would require much more time – something the energy market does not have.
If Iran does not surrender, Trump is unlikely to wait. He will either escalate or back down. It is hard to imagine this siege continuing for months as energy prices keep surging. It is difficult to envision any political solution as long as the blockade continues, and without a political solution, it is hard to imagine that the US will not resort to force.
Trump’s choices: Escalate which he doesn’t want. Cut a deal with Iran he doesn’t much like. Or rely on the blockade to suffocate Iran sufficiently that it drops its long held red lines on nukes. Unclear that would work and over what timeframe.
2) Hormuz Action and Sanctions:
(Apr 24-26) - The U.S. is looking to strengthen its grip on Iranian oil. It’s been well reported that Iranian cargoes have been slipping through the U.S. blockade but a growing number of vessels have been turned around while others have been seized - most notably the M/V Sevan this weekend (see below)
Sanctioned shipping firms and vessels: The US Treasury Department on Friday said it imposed new sanctions on about 40 shipping firms and vessels alleged to be operating as part of Iran’s shadow fleet. Treasury officials said 19 vessels were targeted in the action.
Sanctioned China Refinery: It also said that it was targeting Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, China’s second-largest teapot refinery. The sanctions came for its Iranian oil purchases.
Swift Enforcement: M/V Sevan, one of the 19 newly sanctioned vessels, was swiftly apprehended in the Arabian Sea by U.S. naval forces (see in screenshot below).
Context: The U.S. is looking to exert further pressure on Iran’s oil revenue - sanctioning more vessels involved in the trade, another China teapot (a major one) as well as turning vessels around after they pass Hormuz.
Clearly, this is a significant inconvenience for Iran but is unlikely to be a method that will cause Iran to fold at the negotiating table, especially while the U.S. are unable to even get them there. As it stands, the blocakde is just prolonging the stalemate and acting as a key barrier to negotiations taking place.
3) Lebanon “Ceasefire” in Disarray
(Apr 26) - Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered his military to "vigorously attack Hezbollah targets" in Lebanon, two days after a ceasefire was extended by three weeks. Numerous attacks by both Israel and Hezbollah have been recorded in recent days.
The agreement, which has seen a reduction in fire rather than a complete halt, was extended on Thursday after talks between the countries' envoys in Washington.
Responding to the extension, Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad said "it is essential to point out that the ceasefire is meaningless in light of Israel's insistence on hostile acts, including assassinations, shelling, and gunfire" and its demolition of villages and towns in the south.
Context: It would be a stretch to call the current measures anything that resembles effective. Minus the wave of other hurdles required to bring the US and Iran together, stopping Israeli attacks on Lebanon had previously been a key redline - likely something that will need addressed again.
4) See quick overview of other notable oil market info this weekend:
→ Kharg Loadings Continue - this is mainly a storage play with vessels now becoming more impacted by the US blockade.
→ Growing Suggestion Trump Believes Iranian Production is Under Pressure (It probably isn’t)
Ukrainian Drones Strike Russia's Yaroslavl Oil Refinery:
An oil refinery in the Russian city of Yaroslavl and several targets inside Russian-occupied territories were struck by Ukrainian drones overnight on April 26, Ukraine's General Staff confirmed.
Fresh EU sanctions set to hit condensate imports from Russia's Yamal LNG:
New European Union sanctions will ban condensate imports from Yamal LNG and other Russian projects that produce the light fuel as a byproduct of their liquefied natural gas production from January 1, 2027, according to the EU's official journal.
Until the next edition,
Commodity Curator Team
