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TRUMP CLAIMS SUNDAY IRAN DEAL STILL IN REACH (Time fading fast on this and Israel/Iran takes precedence)
ISRAEL/LEBANON REIGNITES (Iran retaliation appears imminent on Sunday - main oil market risk)
UK BOARDS RUSSIAN DARK FLEET VESSEL
OTHER NOTABLE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS -Ukraine struck a pumping station in Russia's Volgograd region - Trump speaks to Putin - Nigeria has flipped from net importer to net exporter of European refined products -Poland will end its fuel price caps this summer - US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer heads to India - Another sanctioned VLCC slipped past the US Navy blockade into the Persian Gulf.
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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 TRUMP CLAIMS SUNDAY IRAN DEAL STILL IN REACH
Trump told Axios a US-Iran deal remains on track for Sunday signing, delayed "a few hours" by Israel's latest Beirut strike. Current expectations are for an imminent Iran retaliation like last week.
"It is so bad – I couldn't believe it. An hour before we are supposed to sign the deal," he said.
Iranian officials have given a more cautious read: Tehran's reviews of the framework's political, legal and technical aspects are still ongoing, per Fars News.
President Pezeshkian said any final call rests with the Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader.
U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said on Sunday the US is "on track" and Hormuz reopening would begin "immediately" post-signing.
Context: We’ve heard a deal is close numerous times from Trump this conflict but this time felt different, especially as the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added support recently.
Other Iranian officials and various reports added doubt a deal could be signed this weekend - further cemented after Israel struck Beirut again on Sunday - a clear redline for Tehran after last weeks retaliatory action.
As it stands, Israel awaits an imminent strike from Iran on Sunday evening - risking both a U.S./Iran deal and potentially drawing a strike back from Israel. The Trump/Netanyahu relationship appears to have derailed further this week. Trump remains intent on diplomatic processes and a serious reluctance to engage military with Iran. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is the opposite.
🛢 Oil Sentiment: Oil goes risk on again as a likely Iranian strike on Sunday evening towards Israel takes precedence over the apparent impending U.S./Iran MoU. Isreal’s reponse will then shape progress from here.
🇮🇱 🇱🇧 ISRAEL/LEBANON REIGNITES
Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's Dahiyeh district Sunday, Netanyahu and Katz said, in response to three projectiles fired into northern Israel.
A similar strike a week ago briefly derailed Tehran-Washington talks and spiked oil in the early part of the week. Trump condemned the timing on Truth Social. Israeli outlets C14 and I24 report Israel is bracing for an Iranian response on Sunday.
Iran's chief negotiator says there's "no point" in talks if the US can't uphold commitments, and SNSC secretary Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr posted that "the response of Islamic warriors is coming."
Context: It marks another significant fray in the Trump/Netanyahu relationship and a clear lack of cohesion in proceedings. Trump remains intent on trying to settle the Iran situation diplmatically - Israel remains intent on military escalation. Iran made it clear last week that Beirut strikes are totally off limits and attacks there will draw a response.
🛢 Oil Sentiment: We saw last week that Israel/Iran strikes saw a sharp spike for oil initially but the situation fizzled out very quickly and the market was swift to price more positive messaging back in. Trump will be eager to get this infraction over and done with swiftly and then get back to pushing deal messaging. Oil was much more eager to price on positive messaging last week rather than more inflammatory themes like Israel/Lebanon/Iran.
🇬🇧 🇷🇺 UK BOARDS RUSSIAN DARK FLEET VESSEL
Cameroon-flagged Russian dark fleet vessel Smyrtos, sanctioned by the UK and EU, was boarded by Royal Marines via helicopter early Sunday and redirected to coastal waters off southern England.
It is the 12th shadow fleet interception by European or UK authorities this year. The vessel had loaded at Ust Luga. Two other Cameroon-flagged Russian tankers diverted course through the Channel following the high-profile boarding, though three other sanctioned shadow vessels (non-Cameroon flagged) continued through undeterred.
No response yet from Moscow, which has previously called such interceptions "bordering on international piracy."
Context: It was a suprise move by the UK and may result in further Russian dark fleet vessels being targetted. As it stands, its just the Cameroon flagged ones showing a reaction and not passing the English Channel on Sunday.
